Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge ($25k Grant)

Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge—invites you to dive into the evolving global economy and predict how the next era of Modern Mercantilism will transform trade, policy, and power on the global stage.

Challenge Details

Bridgewater studies the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets, turning that understanding into data-driven algorithms that adapt as the world changes. Their goal is to build a system that can both interpret the global economy and guide smart investment decisions—balancing big-picture trends like debt cycles with precise forecasts like interest rate movements.

The Bridgewater and Global Citizen “Forecasting the Future” Challenge invites you into this complex world, focusing on a key issue for today’s leaders: the rise of Modern Mercantilism, where governments actively shape economies to boost national power, cut trade deficits, and drive industrial growth.

Part 1: Your Forecasts

Goal
Create a minimum of 20 binary forecasts (yes/no outcomes) with assigned probabilities.

Length
Each forecast must be one sentence and have clear, objective resolution criteria. No page limit.

Timeframes
Cover short- and long-term timeframes (1 to 10 years).

Focus
Focus on well-calibrated predictions—your probabilities should match outcomes over time. All forecasts must clearly relate to Modern Mercantilism.

• ✅ Example: “There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026–2028.”
• ❌Avoid vague predictions like: “Political polarization will increase.”

Part 2: Your Framework and Holistic Synthesis

Goal
Present your big-picture view of how Modern Mercantilism will shape the next decade.

Framework
Build a coherent framework that ties together your forecasts into a broader understanding.

Explain
Explain the key cause-and-effect dynamics you believe will drive global events.

Reference Forecasts
Reference a few of your most impactful forecasts from Part 1 to illustrate your thinking.

Focus
Focus on clarity and structure—this is about synthesis, not justifying each individual forecast.

Visual Support
You may include charts or data to support your framework.

Length
Maximum of 3 pages in length.

Part 3: Analytical Appendix

Goal
Back up your predictions with clear reasoning, relevant evidence, and thoughtful analysis.

How to use this section is up to you:
Use this space your way—whether it’s to explain the reasoning behind your forecasts, share models that support your views, or dive deeper into the most important parts of your analysis.

Length
We recommend 10 pages or less (but we will never stop reading analysis if it’s great).

Eligibility Criteria

Anyone aged 18 or older can apply—no background, degree, or qualifications required. We’re looking for bold thinkers from all walks of life. Please find the full challenge rules here.

Prizes or Awards

The top 5 winners will receive an employment or internship opportunity at Bridgewater (pending successful completion of its interview requirements) and will receive $25,000.

The deadline for submissions is August 1, 2025. By early September 2025, all applicants will get notification of their decision.

Startyour application for Forecasting The Future

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!